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October 2022

Economic & Market Update

Key Takeaway

Widespread recovery in equity markets pushes indices away from the lows of the year.

During October, the equity markets performed positively, with the Mexican Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 being the main winners; these indices posted gains of 11.87%, 13.95% and 7.99%, respectively. On the other hand, the performance of companies in the technology sector was positive, although to a lesser extent, increasing only 3.90%. This sector was affected by lower than expected quarterly reports and continued increases in interest rates.

The Chinese market, on the other hand, dragged the rest of the emerging countries into negative performance in the period due to the real estate crisis in that economy, zero tolerance policies against COVID 19 and concerns about the concentration of power following the Chinese Communist Party Congress.

In economic news, more than 260,000 jobs were created in the U.S. economy during the month, bringing the year-to-date total to ~3.8 million. This report, despite coming out higher than expected, raised the unemployment rate from 3.5% to 3.7%, which was a catalyst for the market by reducing pressures on the labor market and consequently inflation expectations. At its October meeting, the FED decided to increase its benchmark rate by 75bp to a range of 3.75-4.00%, which was in line with estimates. Although the speech continued to be restrictive, the effect was not enough to interrupt the bullish inertia of the month. In Mexico, meanwhile, GDP surprised on the upside in its third quarter reading, bringing growth estimates for 2022 to around 2.5%. Additionally, the peso continued to maintain its strength against the dollar in an environment where major currencies have weakened to levels not seen in decades. Attractive sovereign debt rates, healthy public finances, record levels of remittances, as well as nearshoring, continue to be the main drivers.

In Grupo Inversión we have maintained our long-term strategic vision unchanged, as well as our exposure to Equities, only making tactical buy/sell and mainly exchange rate movements. As for Fixed Income, we remain positioned in short duration instruments, waiting for positive inflation readings, which will generate greater clarity and a better entry point in terms of taking longer term positions.

Sources

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - US Weekly Market Recap Bloomberg Terminal , FactSet Vanguard - Economic And Market Update November 2022 Global Investment Committee November 2022 (Morgan Stanley)

Equities

Level
MTD
YTD
P/E
P/B
Yield Div.
S&P 500
3871.98
7.99
%
7.99
%
7.99
%
-18.76
%
-18.76
%
-18.76
%
18.76
3.90
1.70
%
1.70
%
1.70
%
Dow Jones 30
32732.95
13.95
%
13.95
%
13.95
%
-9.92
%
-9.92
%
-9.92
%
18.77
4.39
2.13
%
2.13
%
2.13
%
Nasdaq
10988.15
3.90
%
3.90
%
3.90
%
-29.77
%
-29.77
%
-29.77
%
47.20
4.36
0.92
%
0.92
%
0.92
%
IPC
49922.30
11.87
%
11.87
%
11.87
%
-6.29
%
-6.29
%
-6.29
%
13.71
2.10
3.38
%
3.38
%
3.38
%
ACWI
586.37
5.96
%
5.96
%
5.96
%
-22.32
%
-22.32
%
-22.32
%
15.30
2.41
2.38
%
2.38
%
2.38
%
S&P 500
Level
3871.98
MTD
7.99
%
7.99
%
7.99
%
YTD
-18.76
%
-18.76
%
-18.76
%
P/E
18.76
P/B
3.90
Yield Div.
1.70
%
1.70
%
1.70
%
Dow Jones 30
Level
32732.95
MTD
13.95
%
13.95
%
13.95
%
YTD
-9.92
%
-9.92
%
-9.92
%
P/E
18.77
P/B
4.39
Yield Div.
2.13
%
2.13
%
2.13
%
Nasdaq
Level
10988.15
MTD
3.90
%
3.90
%
3.90
%
YTD
-29.77
%
-29.77
%
-29.77
%
P/E
47.20
P/B
4.36
Yield Div.
0.92
%
0.92
%
0.92
%
IPC
Level
49922.30
MTD
11.87
%
11.87
%
11.87
%
YTD
-6.29
%
-6.29
%
-6.29
%
P/E
13.71
P/B
2.10
Yield Div.
3.38
%
3.38
%
3.38
%
ACWI
Level
586.37
MTD
5.96
%
5.96
%
5.96
%
YTD
-22.32
%
-22.32
%
-22.32
%
P/E
15.30
P/B
2.41
Yield Div.
2.38
%
2.38
%
2.38
%

Fixed Income

Level
MTD
YTD
US Aggregate
1985.01
-1.3
%
-1.3
%
-1.30
%
-15.72
%
-15.72
%
-15.72
%
US Corporate
2834.50
-1.03
%
-1.03
%
-1.03
%
-19.56
%
-19.56
%
-19.56
%
High Yield
2153.03
2.6
%
2.6
%
2.60
%
-12.53
%
-12.53
%
-12.53
%
TIPS
326.48
1.24
%
1.24
%
1.24
%
-12.54
%
-12.54
%
-12.54
%
US Aggregate
Level
1985.01
MTD
-1.30
%
-1.3
%
-1.3
%
YTD
-15.72
%
-15.72
%
-15.72
%
US Corporate
Level
2834.50
MTD
-1.03
%
-1.03
%
-1.03
%
YTD
-19.56
%
-19.56
%
-19.56
%
High Yield
Level
2153.03
MTD
2.60
%
2.6
%
2.6
%
YTD
-12.53
%
-12.53
%
-12.53
%
TIPS
Level
326.48
MTD
1.24
%
1.24
%
1.24
%
YTD
-12.54
%
-12.54
%
-12.54
%

Commodities

Level
MTD
YTD
Oil (WTI)
86.53
8.86
%
8.86
%
8.86
%
15.05
%
15.05
%
15.05
%
Natural Gas
6.36
-6.07
%
-6.07
%
-6.07
%
70.38
%
70.38
%
70.38
%
Gold
1640.70
-1.31
%
-1.31
%
-1.31
%
-10.28
%
-10.28
%
-10.28
%
Copper
337.50
-1.10
%
-1.10
%
-1.10
%
-24.39
%
-24.39
%
-24.39
%
Oil (WTI)
Level
86.53
MTD
8.86
%
8.86
%
8.86
%
YTD
15.05
%
15.05
%
15.05
%
Natural Gas
Level
6.36
MTD
-6.07
%
-6.07
%
-6.07
%
YTD
70.38
%
70.38
%
70.38
%
Gold
Level
1640.70
MTD
-1.31
%
-1.31
%
-1.31
%
YTD
-10.28
%
-10.28
%
-10.28
%
Copper
Level
337.50
MTD
-1.10
%
-1.10
%
-1.10
%
YTD
-24.39
%
-24.39
%
-24.39
%

Currency Exchange

Rate
YTD
USD.MXN
19.81
-3.50
%
-3.5
%
-3.50
%
EUR.MXN
19.58
-16.10
%
-16.1
%
-16.10
%
EUR.USD
0.99
-13.09
%
-13.09
%
-13.09
%
GBP.USD
1.15
-15.25
%
-15.25
%
-15.25
%
USD.MXN
Rate
19.81
YTD
-3.50
%
-3.5
%
-3.50
%
EUR.MXN
Rate
19.58
YTD
-16.10
%
-16.1
%
-16.10
%
EUR.USD
Rate
0.99
YTD
-13.09
%
-13.09
%
-13.09
%
GBP.USD
Rate
1.15
YTD
-15.25
%
-15.25
%
-15.25
%

S&P500 Industry Classification (YTD %)