June 2023
Economic & Market Update
Key Takeaway
Positive half-year for the markets; highlights include the recovery of large technology companies, as well as the performance of the Mexican stock market and the exchange rate.
The first half of the year ended with positive returns for the markets. The main American stock indexes S&P 500 and NASDAQ accumulated returns of 15.91% and 31.73%, respectively. These two indices outperformed the iconic Dow Jones index by 3.80% during the same period.
The quarter was characterized by a rebound in large technology companies, which were the most affected during 2022 and now lead as the sector with the best performance so far this year. It should also be noted that the 10 companies with the greatest weight within the S&P 500 (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, Google, Facebook, Berkshire Hathaway and UnitedHealth Group) were responsible for 95% of the index's performance during the period.
With respect to the debt markets, the results for the first half of the year were influenced by constant changes in the Fed's signals regarding the path for interest rates. These changes generated volatility in fixed income prices and a difficult environment for investors to navigate. Within this asset class, High Yield bonds stood out due to the resilience of the U.S. economic data, yielding 5.38% during the period.
In contrast to the positive results, commodities ended the quarter down due to the weakening of world demand, mainly in China, which has been less dynamic than expected. As a result, natural gas and oil prices have fallen -37.47% and -11.99%, respectively, so far this year.
Finally, in the local environment, positive economic data throughout the first half of the year have caused growth estimates to continue to be revised upwards, thus expecting a growth of around 2.3% for this year 2023. In addition to the above, the phenomenon of Nearshoring, or relocation, is just beginning and could act as another catalyst to accelerate the country's growth. This partly explains the positive momentum for the Mexican stock market, which, boosted by an appreciation of the peso of over 12%, has generated an outstanding global performance of over 22% in dollars.