May 2023
Economic & Market Update
Key Takeaway
Enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, the U.S. debt ceiling and a peso that continues to strengthen against the dollar.
Mixed results for equity markets and negative results for debt and commodity markets during the month.
Regarding the stock market, a new fervor about artificial intelligence drove technology companies to accumulate a positive return of 5.80% during the period. Of particular note was NVIDIA, a semiconductor manufacturer, which in May alone increased its value by $248 billion dollars, or 36.34%, briefly becoming the seventh company to pass the trillion dollar mark in market capitalization. In contrast, the market's most representative index, the S&P 500, barely managed a positive return of 0.25% during the month.
Meanwhile, bond markets continued to debate what the future path for interest rates will be. We started May with investors anticipating a terminal rate of 5.25% and the possibility of three cuts of 25bp each by the end of the year, a projection that changed throughout the month due to solid economic and employment data that left the door open to additional hikes and if possible a single cut during 2023, thus affecting fixed income valuations. Likewise, in the commodities market, oil and copper prices fell by -11.32% and -6.02%, respectively, explained in part by the lower dynamism of the Chinese economy and its impact on world growth.
On the economic front, another issue that caused noise during May was the negotiations between Democrats and Republicans to extend the U.S. government debt ceiling. With Joe Biden's Democrats seeking to extend the debt ceiling to avoid a possible default on the debt and the Republicans demanding concessions such as cuts in government spending. And while a new debt ceiling, currently at $31.4 trillion, was not set, it was temporarily suspended to avoid a possible default by postponing the problem until after the 2024 presidential election; the agreement provided certainty for the markets.
Final comment, the super peso continued to strengthen to end trading at 17.69 pesos per dollar, an appreciation of 9.29% so far this year.