Solid returns for the stock markets during November, with the Mexican stock market being the exception. With this, the extraordinary performance of the world's stock markets continued, led by the American markets, which to date have accumulated returns of more than 25% during 2024. In November alone, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ accumulated returns of 5.73% and 6.21%, respectively, marking their best month of the year. The Consumer Discretionary and Financials sectors stood out, while the Health Care sector was the only one without significant positive changes during the period.

Likewise, Bitcoin surpassed historical highs given the possibility of a less regulated environment and momentum for cryptocurrencies in light of the arrival of Trump to the presidency. Thus, it rebounded to levels close to 100,000usd per coin, registering a cumulative return of 120% in the year.

However, the story has not been the same for the Mexican and Brazilian stock markets, whose yields in dollars have reached losses of close to 30%, presenting themselves as the worst investments in the course of this 2024 and affected by the uncertainty of the trade policies of the new tenant in the White House.

As of today, President-elect Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada if there is no cooperation on migration and fentanyl trafficking to his country. It is possible that such threats will only be used to achieve better conditions during the renegotiation of the TMEC in July 2026; however, until we are certain about the new trade agreements of the bloc, it will be difficult to forecast the effects this may have on the different economic variables for our country, particularly the exchange rate.

Finally, in Mexico, the economic package for 2025 was presented, reducing the public finance deficit from 5.9% in 2024 to 3.9% for the following year; it also projected GDP growth of 2.5% and an exchange rate of 18.70 by the end of the period. While the deficit reduction may be achievable, we consider the growth and exchange rate targets to be overly optimistic.

We at Grupo Inversion wish you a very Merry Christmas and a prosperous 2025!