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August 2024

Economic & Market Update

Key Takeaway

FED prioritizes labor market over inflation in its dual mandate; the groundwork is laid for a first rate cut in September.

During August, the equity markets performed positively, with the ACWI*, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones being the main winners; these indices posted gains of 2.40%, 2.28% and 1.76%, respectively. Likewise, defensive sectors such as consumer staples and healthcare were also favored, increasing 5.78% and 4.99% during the month. The technology sector, although positive, lagged on this occasion.

With the second quarter reporting season over, the outlook and balance sheets of major U.S. companies continued their good trend. These reports showed year-over-year increases in sales of 5.3%, while profits expanded by 11.3% during the same period, both metrics showing solid growth. NVDA's (Nvidia) report, despite beating estimates, did not convince the market, causing an intraday loss in the order of 3.78%. Finally, Berkshire Hathaway became the seventh company to surpass the trillion dollar mark in market capitalization, the only non-technology company in this league.

Turning to economic issues, favorable inflation readings shifted the Fed's focus to prioritizing employment over inflation in its dual mandate. In his August 23 speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, the Fed Chairman communicated that inflation levels and trajectory were appropriate and would not allow for an unwanted slowdown in the labor market. That speech laid the groundwork for a first rate cut of at least 25 basis points during September, while the magnitude of this will depend on the data known at the time. The forward frequency puts between 75-100 basis points of rate cuts for the remainder of the year on the table.

Finally, in the local market, the news was not good. The Mexican stock market fell 2.09% during the month, while the exchange rate depreciated 5.68% during the period. Volatility will continue during September with the entry of the new legislative branch and its legislative initiatives.

Sources

Bloomberg Terminal, FactSet J.P. Morgan Asset Management - US Weekly Market Recap The Week in Charts By Charlie Bilello

Equities

Level
MTD
YTD
P/E
P/B
Yield Div.
S&P 500
5648.40
2.28
%
2.28
%
2.28
%
18.42
%
18.42
%
18.42
%
25.70
5.02
1.36
%
1.36
%
1.36
%
dow jones 30
41563.08
1.76
%
1.76
%
1.76
%
10.28
%
10.28
%
10.28
%
22.54
5.21
1.79
%
1.79
%
1.79
%
nasdaq
17713.63
0.65
%
0.65
%
0.65
%
18.00
%
18.00
%
18.00
%
49.73
6.72
0.75
%
0.75
%
0.75
%
ipc
51985.87
-2.09
%
-2.09
%
-2.09
%
-9.41
%
-9.41
%
-9.41
%
14.65
1.92
4.21
%
4.21
%
4.21
%
ACWI
833.68
2.40
%
2.40
%
2.40
%
14.67
%
14.67
%
14.67
%
21.69
3.24
1.95
%
1.95
%
1.95
%
S&P 500
Level
5648.40
MTD
2.28
%
2.28
%
2.28
%
YTD
18.42
%
18.42
%
18.42
%
P/E
25.70
P/B
5.02
Yield Div.
1.36
%
1.36
%
1.36
%
dow jones 30
Level
41563.08
MTD
1.76
%
1.76
%
1.76
%
YTD
10.28
%
10.28
%
10.28
%
P/E
22.54
P/B
5.21
Yield Div.
1.79
%
1.79
%
1.79
%
nasdaq
Level
17713.63
MTD
0.65
%
0.65
%
0.65
%
YTD
18.00
%
18.00
%
18.00
%
P/E
49.73
P/B
6.72
Yield Div.
0.75
%
0.75
%
0.75
%
ipc
Level
51985.87
MTD
-2.09
%
-2.09
%
-2.09
%
YTD
-9.41
%
-9.41
%
-9.41
%
P/E
14.65
P/B
1.92
Yield Div.
4.21
%
4.21
%
4.21
%
ACWI
Level
833.68
MTD
2.40
%
2.40
%
2.40
%
YTD
14.67
%
14.67
%
14.67
%
P/E
21.69
P/B
3.24
Yield Div.
1.95
%
1.95
%
1.95
%

Fixed Income

Level
MTD
YTD
us aggregate
2228.33
1.44
%
1.44
%
1.44
%
3.07
%
3.07
%
3.07
%
us corporate
3333.38
1.57
%
1.57
%
1.57
%
3.49
%
3.49
%
3.49
%
high yield
2635.81
1.63
%
1.63
%
1.63
%
6.28
%
6.28
%
6.28
%
tips
353.17
0.78
%
0.78
%
0.78
%
3.30
%
3.3
%
3.30
%
us aggregate
Level
2228.33
MTD
1.44
%
1.44
%
1.44
%
YTD
3.07
%
3.07
%
3.07
%
us corporate
Level
3333.38
MTD
1.57
%
1.57
%
1.57
%
YTD
3.49
%
3.49
%
3.49
%
high yield
Level
2635.81
MTD
1.63
%
1.63
%
1.63
%
YTD
6.28
%
6.28
%
6.28
%
tips
Level
353.17
MTD
0.78
%
0.78
%
0.78
%
YTD
3.30
%
3.3
%
3.30
%

Commodities

Level
MTD
YTD
oil wti
73.55
-5.60
%
-5.60
%
-5.60
%
2.65
%
2.65
%
2.65
%
natural gas
2.13
4.47
%
4.47
%
4.47
%
-15.39
%
-15.39
%
-15.39
%
gold
2504.50
3.21
%
3.21
%
3.21
%
20.89
%
20.89
%
20.89
%
copper
414.50
-0.75
%
-0.75
%
-0.75
%
6.54
%
6.54
%
6.54
%
oil wti
Level
73.55
MTD
-5.60
%
-5.60
%
-5.60
%
YTD
2.65
%
2.65
%
2.65
%
natural gas
Level
2.13
MTD
4.47
%
4.47
%
4.47
%
YTD
-15.39
%
-15.39
%
-15.39
%
gold
Level
2504.50
MTD
3.21
%
3.21
%
3.21
%
YTD
20.89
%
20.89
%
20.89
%
copper
Level
414.50
MTD
-0.75
%
-0.75
%
-0.75
%
YTD
6.54
%
6.54
%
6.54
%

Currency Exchange

Rate
YTD
usd.mxn
19.73
16.24
%
16.24
%
16.24
%
eur.mxn
21.80
16.27
%
16.27
%
16.27
%
eur.usd
1.10
0.08
%
0.08
%
0.08
%
gbp.usd
1.31
3.11
%
3.11
%
3.11
%
usd.mxn
Rate
19.73
YTD
16.24
%
16.24
%
16.24
%
eur.mxn
Rate
21.80
YTD
16.27
%
16.27
%
16.27
%
eur.usd
Rate
1.10
YTD
0.08
%
0.08
%
0.08
%
gbp.usd
Rate
1.31
YTD
3.11
%
3.11
%
3.11
%

S&P500 Industry Classification (YTD %)