February 2024
Economic & Market Update
Key Takeaway
The rally in equity markets continues despite fewer rate cuts expected for 2024.
During the month of February, equity markets continued the positive performance shown at the beginning of the year, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices being the main winners with increases of 6.12% and 5.17%, respectively. This dynamism has prevailed despite the fact that the market has finally aligned itself with the FED by expecting only 3 rate cuts for 2024 and not 5, and the first of these being in June and not March as originally anticipated. And while the stock market has been resilient to the rate issue, this has not been the case for the fixed income markets, whose main indices have undergone slight adjustments at the beginning of the year, the exception being the High Yield index of speculative bonds.
First, an extraordinary NVIDIA report coupled with very optimistic guidance from management led the company to increase its value by $227 billion dollars, 16% higher in a single day and making it the third most valuable company in the world. Secondly, the value of BITCOIN returned to record highs by surpassing $69,000 dollars per unit reached in November 2021, and driven by the recent approval of spot ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) of the currency, which facilitates the demand for institutional money to incorporate such asset in their portfolios. Finally, the most representative stock index of the Japanese stock market, the Nikkei 225, also surpassed highs during the month; however, unlike the BITCOIN, the latter took only 34 years to do so, thus surpassing the levels of the Japanese bubble of 1989.
Finally, in search of a more attractive relative valuation, the Investment Group Committee decided to reduce the equity exposure to the technology sector and take positions in the Japanese market and in the health sector, without modifying the total exposure to the equity market; while for fixed income, market opportunities were taken advantage of to increase fixed rate duration within the portfolios.